Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was becoming disillusioned with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.
When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". Context, however, is key.
During that darkly divisive time of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he later succeeded.
The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues
Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. During the most recent campaign, he consistently stressed manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.
Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.
A Lid That Rattles on Europe
Yet, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations may not be the central crisis in UK politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle once more.
The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on Britain's economic standing. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his only real achievement.
Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.
Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals
The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly about the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on joining one.
While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism
However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.
Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- First, he believes any customs union agreement has been made much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, like environmental standards.
- Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that European nations are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK and are more focused on proving that Brexit does not work.
- Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.
An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Calculations
This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from concluding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past
All of which returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within Downing Street note that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a group of senior ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.
The Clear Danger & A Prudent Memory
The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where most of the party's supporters reside.
It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.
